Published October 7, 2026 in Market Update

Which Price Range Held Up Best in Northern Virginia

I pulled every sale in this market from May 2026 through early October 2026. One number stopped me. The $800,000 to $1,000,000 range had the highest share of sellers who got at or above their asking price: 77.1%. That is not the priciest range. It is not the most active. It just performed the best, by a clear margin.

Prices peaked in June and have been lower since.

The market ran hot through spring. The typical sold price was $810,000 in May and $820,000 in June. Then July came in at $749,700. August recovered to $800,000, but September slipped again to $745,000.

The first half of the file, April 2026 to July 2026, covered 937 sales at a typical price of $797,500. The second half, July 2026 to October 2026, covered 693 sales at $770,000. Fewer homes sold and the typical price was lower. That is the shift. July appears at the boundary of both periods in the data as labeled, and the direction is clear either way.

What I wish every seller knew before picking a price.

The biggest thing the data shows is that price range matters more than timing. Under $550,000, only 60.9% of sellers got at or above their asking price. In the $800,000 to $1,000,000 range, 77.1% did. That is a 16.2 percentage point gap, and it held across the whole file.

The $800,000 to $1,000,000 range outperformed even the million-dollar-plus homes, where 70.8% of sellers hit their number. If you are sitting on a home that could be priced anywhere near that middle band, that is worth knowing before you pick a number.

The second thing I wish sellers knew: nearly half the homes for sale right now have already dropped their price. Of the 412 homes on the market as of October 7, 2026, 46.8% have cut what they first asked. The typical cut is $20,000, which is 3.6% of the first asking price. The biggest single cut is $5,000,000, on Kings Cavalier.

A price cut is not always fatal. The whole market shows that the typical home sold for exactly 100% of its last asking price. But sellers who cut are starting over from a weaker spot, and buyers notice.

The third thing: speed inside the same neighborhood can vary wildly. In Country Creek, one home on Shawn Leigh sold in 3 days at $770,000, starting at $750,000. Another on Scotch Haven sat for 181 days and sold at $750,000, starting at $795,000. One started at $750,000 and sold above asking in 3 days. The other started at $795,000 and sold below asking after 181 days. The first price is not just a number. It is a signal.

The fourth thing: supply is tight. At the current pace, every home for sale would be gone in 1.8 months. Under 4 months favors sellers. We are well inside that. That is the one piece of good news for anyone listing right now.

What this means if you are selling or buying right now.

If you are selling, the data points to one thing: the first price you pick is the one that matters. The Country Creek example is the clearest proof in this file. Two homes, same neighborhood, different results. The one priced at $750,000 sold in 3 days and above asking. The one priced at $795,000 sat for 181 days and sold below asking. With 1.8 months of supply, the market will reward a well-priced home. It will punish one that starts too high and then cuts.

If you are buying, the rate environment adds real pressure. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, up from 6.34% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. That is a meaningful jump in monthly cost. At the same time, the Stephen Fuller Institute at George Mason University projects Northern Virginia will start adding jobs in fall 2026, two months ahead of earlier forecasts. A tightening job market and low supply do not point toward prices softening. If you find a home priced in that $800,000 to $1,000,000 band, expect competition.