Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Oakton stayed tight while other parts of Oakton Pyramid opened up

The number that matters most: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a $1,192,500 median sale price in ZIP 22124 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is 19.3% above the same period in 2025. It is also $447,550 above the $744,950 median sold price the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORs reported for all of Northern Virginia in September 2026. That gap is not an accident. It is school zoning and commute access doing exactly what they always do here.

ZIP 22124 is the core of the Oakton Pyramid. Homes there sold at 101.2% of list price, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Nearly 45 in 100 sold above list. The median sat at 29 days on market, seven days shorter than the same period in 2025. Supply held at 1.7 months. That is tight by any measure.

The rest of the pyramid is a different read

ZIPs 22033 and 20171 sit inside the same school pyramid, but they moved differently. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 119 homes sold in 22033 and 161 in 20171 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. Inventory rose sharply in both. Homes for sale in 22033 were up 30.8% year over year. In 20171, they were up 16.5%. More supply means buyers have more choices, and the numbers show it.

In 20171, the median sale price slipped 1.3% year over year to $750,000, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Days on market stretched to 35, four days longer than 2025. The share of homes that went under contract within two weeks dropped 12.3 points. That is a real shift. Sellers in 20171 are working harder for the same result.

The wider picture adds context

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that price cuts hit 20.8% of listings in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025, also per Realtor.com. CNBC reported that Fannie Mae forecasts the 30-year fixed rate at 7.4% for the fourth quarter of 2026. Rates at that level push some buyers to the sideline. That matters more in 20171, where supply is up and pricing already softened, than in 22124, where demand held firm.

Across all of Northern Virginia, the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORs reported that active listings rose 30.7% year over year in September 2026. Closed sales totaled 1,250 homes, down 7.5% year over year. More supply and fewer closings is the regional story. The Oakton Pyramid tracked that trend in 22033 and 20171. ZIP 22124 did not.

What this means for sellers and buyers

Sellers in 22124 have pricing power right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 49.3% of homes there went under contract within two weeks. That is almost half the market moving in 14 days. A well-priced home in this ZIP does not sit.

Sellers in 20171 need a tighter comp set. The median dipped, days stretched, and only 28% of homes cleared list price, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Pricing off the wrong comparable costs money.

Buyers in 22033 and 20171 have more room than they did a year ago. Inventory in 22033 rose 30.8% year over year. In 20171 it rose 16.5%. More choices, and in 20171, a median price that actually moved down. That is a real shift from 2025.

Buyers targeting 22124 need a plan. With 1.7 months of supply and 44.9% of homes selling above list, offers here still need to be sharp. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. In 22124, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows prices rose 19.3% over the same window. This ZIP is not following the national pace. It is running well ahead of it.

One more thing: these are ZIP code numbers. A single street inside any of these ZIPs can read differently from the whole. The comp that matters is the one closest to your front door, not the one that covers 161 sales.